The China Times has a new poll out with early predictions of the election. It has Ma up over Su or Hsieh by 20 points, 48-29, with 23% having no opinion, while Su/Hsieh beat Wang 38-32 with 30% having no opinion. The China Times organization also polled on Ma as an independent:


If Wang Jin-pyng represents the KMT, and Ma Ying-jeou participates as an independent, and Su or Hsieh represents the DPP, among those surveyed, 11.1% said they would support Wang, 42.5% said they’d support Ma, 27.6% said they’d support [DPP candidate], and 18.8% had no opinion.

The article went on to note that if Ma were convicted, those numbers are 13.5, 35.2, 31.1, and 20.2, respectively.

The survey was conducted by phone, probably in northern Taiwan, since I deem it unlikely the organization would spend all that money making long distance calls. Polls from Blue organizations are notorious for their wild inaccuracy, and these numbers should be read as indicative of the preferences of the China Times rather than as a valid representation of the electorate. Laughably, the paper claims it has a margin of error of 2.9%. Yes, and did you know that 63.8% of statistics are made up on the spot?

UPDATE: From the comment below, A New Taiwan poll has Hsieh up on Ma 53% to 47%, which seems a very reasonable figure.