Will Hsieh win? Everyone I talk to says exactly the same thing: no (in fact the question is usually met with laughter). Why? I spent this evening conversing with a longtime democracy activist with deep connections into the DPP, and the person says what everyone else is saying: the Hsieh camp is running an awful campaign. According to this person, many in the DPP were angry that Hsieh distanced himself from the legislative campaign, and blame him because they did not prevent the KMT from getting 2/3 of the seats. Apparently nobody in the DPP owns a calculator, and they actually believed they were going to win more than 1/3 of the seats. Wish I’d done my calculations before the election….As a result, only a portion of the DPP is working for Hsieh. UPDATE: Keep in mind that discussions of what is happening inside the DPP are discussions that take place in Taipei about things that happen in Taipei. Does the great mass of the citizenry outside the capital know or care?

I did see some great posters of Hsieh today, but didn’t have a chance to get a pic. But finally, the campaign is becoming visible….

There is less than a month to go now, and we are where we were in Feb of 2000 and Feb of 2004: nobody thinking the DPP would win at this point. Tomorrow is the debate between Hsieh and Ma. Can Hsieh turn it around? Everyone seems to think he is a better speaker than Ma — which actually gives Ma the advantage, since he need merely hold his own…..